Dutch Home Listings Double in Five Years as Prices Keep Rising

Dutch Home Listings Double in Five Years as Prices Keep Rising

The Dutch housing market is experiencing a paradox. On one hand, the number of properties listed for sale has surged to record levels in recent years. On the other, home prices continue to climb, defying expectations of a downturn. New research by ING finds that despite mortgage rates rising, the market remains too tight for significant price drops. In this article, we'll explore the drivers behind increased supply, why the extra listings haven’t eased price pressures, and what rising borrowing costs mean for buyers and renters across the Netherlands.

A Surge in Property Listings

According to the ING report, the number of homes listed with brokers from the Dutch Association of Real Estate Brokers (NVM) has skyrocketed from around 18,000 in 2018 to over 37,000 in mid-2023. That’s more than double the inventory in just five years:

Several factors are contributing to this surge in supply:

• Investor sell-off: Private landlords are responding to higher taxes and stricter regulations by putting rental properties on the market.
• Aging homeowners: In rural and semi-urban areas, older residents are downsizing or moving into assisted living, freeing up family homes.
• Shifting demographics: Young adults and international workers form a growing share of the population, creating demand pressures elsewhere but also prompting some owners to relocate for work or education.

Despite these trends, sales volumes still outpace available stock in many regions, meaning buyers compete fiercely for desirable homes.

Why Prices Refuse to Fall

Intuitively, an increase in supply should relieve upward pressure on prices. In reality, the Dutch housing market remains undersupplied relative to long-term demand. Key reasons include:

1. Persistent demand: Population growth, low unemployment, and favourable mortgage conditions in past years have bolstered household formation.
2. Limited new construction: Municipalities (gemeenten) face zoning and environmental hurdles that slow down building projects, especially in high-demand cities like Amsterdam and Utrecht.
3. Investment appeal: Even with regulatory headwinds, real estate remains an attractive hedge against inflation, prompting both domestic and international investors to snap up available properties.

As a result, ING forecasts an overall price increase of around 2.5% by the end of the year, despite the higher interest rate environment.

The Impact of Rising Mortgage Rates

Over the past 12 months, the average rate on a 10-year fixed-rate mortgage backed by the National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) has climbed from roughly 3.6% to 4.4%. This seemingly modest uptick translates into a 6%–7% increase in monthly payments for new buyers, directly reducing their borrowing capacity.

For example, on a €300,000 mortgage:

• At 3.6%, the monthly payment (interest-only) would be approximately €900.
• At 4.4%, the same loan costs about €1,100 per month.

This squeeze on purchasing power means some buyers are stepping back, but others—often first-time homeowners or those trading up—are absorbing the higher costs rather than waiting for deeper price cuts.

Regional Variations and Opportunities

While the national trend points to rising prices, local markets tell a more nuanced story:

• Randstad: Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, and Utrecht continue to see price growth, though competition is moderating compared to previous years.
• Secondary cities: Places like Eindhoven, Zwolle, and Enschede have witnessed tighter market conditions as remote work fuels demand for more spacious homes.
• Rural areas: Some villages in Friesland and Limburg show minor price adjustments, offering opportunities for budget-conscious buyers willing to commute.

Prospective purchasers should research neighbourhood-level data and consider factors like job connectivity, future infrastructure plans, and living costs before making an offer.

What Renters Should Know

An exodus of private landlords from the market could tighten the rental sector. As more properties transition from rentals to owner‐occupied homes, rental listings may become scarcer, and average rents could rise. Expats and young professionals, in particular, may face increased competition for mid-range apartments in key cities.

If you’re currently renting or planning to move, it’s wise to:

• Start your search early and be prepared to view multiple properties.
• Get your documents in order—proof of income, references, and a valid ID—to act quickly when you find a suitable unit.
• Consider shared accommodation or slightly outlying neighbourhoods to balance affordability and accessibility.

Looking Ahead

The Dutch housing market is unlikely to see steep price declines in the near term. Supply constraints remain, and demand fundamentals are strong. Mortgages have become more expensive, but buyers continue to adapt, absorbing higher payments. For renters, the shifting ownership landscape may translate into stiffer competition.

Whether you’re looking to buy or rent, staying informed about market dynamics and acting decisively will be key to securing a home that fits your budget and lifestyle.

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